The debate over the cloud computing business (I)

There is an interesting debate going on about the future of the software industry. What will happen with the cloud computing business?

It all starts with a post by Hugh Macleod, who raises a very valid question: if this cloud computing business takes off, and everybody goes crazy and starts hosting their applications in the cloud, isn’t there a chance that a monopoly will emerge, and out of it the biggest company that has ever existed? A company that would make Google and Microsoft look like dwarfs!

Macleod says:

…nobody seems to be talking about Power Laws. Nobody’s saying that one day a single company may possibly emerge to dominate The Cloud, the way Google came to dominate Search, the way Microsoft came to dominate Software.

Monopoly issues aside, could you imagine such a company? We wouldn’t be talking about a multi-billion dollar business like today’s Microsoft or Google. We’re talking about something that could feasibly dwarf them. We’re potentially talking about a multi-trillion dollar company. Possibly the largest company to have ever existed.

Interesting. So interesting that it has drawn replies from several important “technology gurus”.

Since today, of all days, Microsoft is launching its strategy to support cloud computing through its Windows Azure infrastructure, I think this debate is worth exploring. So I invite you to explore, over the next few days, this debate over the cloud computing business.